While overall insolvency levels across Central and Eastern Europe stabilised in 2025, Coface’s latest CEE Insolvency Study points to a far more complex and fragmented picture, with significant disparities between countries and sectors driven by diverging macroeconomic conditions.
Key takeaways
- Insolvency levels remain broadly stable (+0.26%) but are increasingly fragmented across the region
- Poland recorded the most pronounced increase, with insolvencies rising by 17.8%
- Manufacturing, construction and transport sectors are experiencing the strongest growth in business failures
At a regional level, insolvency proceedings increased by just 0.26% in 2025, rising from 46,043 cases in 2024 to 46,161 in 2025. Although easing inflation, declining interest rates, improved energy markets and softer wage pressures provided partial relief to corporate margins, these factors did not result in a consistent recovery for businesses across Central and Eastern Europe.
Headline numbers suggest stabilisation, but the underlying reality is far more complex.
The gap between countries is widening and insolvency dynamics are increasingly shaped by national factors such as regulatory frameworks, fiscal policy and exposure to external demand.
said Mateusz Dadej, Regional Economist at Coface.
Country‑level divergence shapes the regional outlook
At country level, 2025 revealed three clearly differentiated trends across the region. Insolvency developments varied significantly across Central and Eastern Europe, with certain countries recording sharp double‑digit declines while others experienced equally pronounced increases.
Poland registered the largest rise, with insolvencies increasing by +17.8%. This development mainly reflects the broader use of restructuring frameworks rather than an abrupt weakening of underlying business conditions. Slovenia (+12.9%), Serbia (+9.6%), the Czech Republic (+8.7%) and Romania (+3.8%) also recorded higher insolvency figures, influenced by a mix of tighter fiscal policies, political uncertainty, subdued external demand and deteriorating payment discipline.
In contrast, Croatia (-18.6%), Slovakia (-14.5%), Lithuania (-13%), Latvia (-7.4%), Hungary (-6.6%) and Bulgaria (-6.2%) posted significant declines. These reductions point to a gradual rebalancing following earlier surges linked to the energy crisis, regulatory adjustments and the phasing‑out of pandemic‑era support measures.
Estonia (+1.1%) remained broadly unchanged, highlighting how seemingly stable national figures can still mask persistent pressures within specific sectors.
Persistent strain in cyclical industries
From a sectoral perspective, insolvency trends showed greater alignment across the region. The most significant rise in corporate failures occurred in manufacturing, construction and transport, underlining these sectors’ high exposure to tighter financing conditions and shifts in external demand.
While declining interest rates and moderating inflation offered limited support, reduced pricing power and the lagged effects of earlier cost increases continued to weigh heavily on cash flow, especially among small and mid-sized enterprises.
Outlook for 2026: Energy volatility alters the risk landscape
Looking ahead, the current phase of relative stability is unlikely to be sustained in 2026. Coface anticipates mounting insolvency risks across Central and Eastern Europe as renewed energy-related shocks place additional strain on both households and businesses.
A sharp rise in oil and gas prices is already translating into higher production and operating costs, squeezing margins and forcing companies to either absorb losses or pass costs on to customers in a context of still-fragile demand. As a net importer of energy resources, the region remains particularly vulnerable.
Policy responses such as fuel price caps or temporary tax cuts may ease household pressure in the short term. However, these measures increase fiscal strain and can create risks to energy supply security. At the same time, higher insolvency levels in Germany, the CEE region’s key trading partner, heighten the risk of negative spillovers through trade flows and supply chains.
There are supportive factors on the horizon, including accelerated absorption of EU funds and stronger external demand later in 2026. However, these positives are unlikely to fully offset energy volatility and external risks.
As the operating environment becomes more challenging again, companies need to focus on liquidity management, cost control and counterparty risk.
said Jarosław Jaworski, Regional CEO of Coface Central.
Coface expects business insolvencies across Central and Eastern Europe to rise in 2026, as renewed cost pressures, external dependencies and economic policy uncertainty put corporate resilience to a severe test.
> Download the 2026 CEE insolvencies study to learn more
