International trade is undergoing a major shift. With rising geopolitical tensions, volatile markets, and new trade barriers, exporters must adapt quickly to stay resilient and competitive. According to the World Economic Forum, 83% of economists anticipate economic instability over the next two years, and 5% foresee a full-blown crisis.
The Return of Trade Protectionism
In April 2025, the United States reintroduced aggressive tariffs under President Donald Trump. A baseline 10% import duty now applies across the board, with higher rates targeting specific regions: 34% for China, 24% for Japan, and 20% for the European Union. As a result, the average U.S. tariff rate has surged to 26.2%, up from 2.3% in 2024.
The EU has already signaled it may retaliate through its Anti-Coercion Instrument, while China imposed 15% duties on U.S. agricultural products.
Geopolitical risk has become a long-term factor in global trade. Businesses must adapt to a multipolar world where the regionalisation of trade flows disrupts supply chains and can even reshape corporate strategies. This trend is further accelerated by emerging challenges such as climate change and environmental crises.
Ruben NIZARD, Head of Sector and Political Risk Analysis at Coface (Source: Coface)
Three Major Challenges for Exporters
1. Unpredictable Trade Routes and Supply Chain Disruptions
Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan have made key shipping corridors volatile. In late 2024, traffic through the Suez Canal dropped by more than 50%, prompting many carriers to detour via the Cape of Good Hope.
Companies relying on a single supplier or route were the most impacted. Exporters now need to reassess their logistics networks and diversify supply chains.
2. Partner Financial Instability
Business bankruptcies in the U.S. surged over 40% last year. Many companies hide financial stress with growing debt until they collapse suddenly.
Without thorough financial due diligence, exporters risk non-payments and disruptions throughout their supply chains.
3. Late Payments and Credit Defaults
Weaker demand often leads to slower payments. In 2024, China’s Sinochem closed two major oil refineries due to high costs and low demand. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s Beximco Group entered a deep debt crisis, affecting customers in over 50 countries.
Sectors Most at Risk in 2025
- Manufacturing (Automotive & Semiconductors): Tariffs and high raw material costs are forcing global manufacturers to rethink sourcing strategies.
- Energy and Natural Resources: Demand shifts and policy changes continue to disrupt energy trade, especially for LNG.
- Agriculture and Food: Post-Brexit red tape led to a 6.1% drop in UK food exports in 2024.
- Transport and Logistics: Red Sea shipping disruptions halted production at major automakers like Tesla and Volvo.
How to Strengthen Your Export Strategy
Exporters must gain clear, real-time visibility into business and political risks.
Urba360 by Coface offers a unified risk Score across 200+ countries and all major sectors, empowering you to:
- Assess your partners’ financial stability
- Make better credit and payment decisions
- Monitor sectoral and geopolitical risks
- Anticipate payment defaults and credit events
Download our whitepaper to get a full overview of 2025 export risks — and discover how Coface can help protect your business.
