The agri‑food industry is navigating a period marked by global market volatility, regulatory changes, and evolving consumer behaviours. At Coface, our role is to analyse these dynamics and help companies make informed strategic decisions. As a member of Wagralim, Coface shares in this article a clear and accessible overview of the trends that will shape agri‑food markets in Europe and Belgium in 2026.
Global agricultural markets: supply pressure persists
Global grain markets remain under pressure:
Soy is the only major crop showing a slight year‑on‑year increase.
Rice has experienced the sharpest drop, due to abundant global supply and downward revisions of price forecasts for 2025.
Three elements will partly determine price trends in the coming months:
- The progress of the U.S. corn harvest
- Weather conditions in the southern hemisphere (with a significant probability of occurrence of El Niño)
- The conflict in the Middle East and its impact on global fertiliser supply and prices
In the tropical commodities segment, coffee prices decline since November 2025 (-20% compared to the same period last year) but remain 20% above the 2022-2025 average prices.
Cocoa prices have declined from their historic highs but remain elevated due to ongoing constraints affecting production in West Africa.
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European cereals: wheat–corn price inversion
For the first time since 2023, European wheat is trading at a lower price than corn. This inversion reflects:
- strong wheat availability, notably due to favourable harvests in Romania and Spain,
- a persistent shortage of European corn, with stock levels continuing to fall.
A stronger euro may exert limited downward pressure on prices, but the main driver of this inversion remains the imbalance between abundant wheat and scarce corn supply.
EU Deforestation Regulation: delay until end‑2026 provides short‑term relief
Implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has been postponed to the end of 2026.
The regulation introduces strict due‑diligence and traceability requirements for commodities linked to deforestation, such as cocoa.
This delay is particularly significant for West Africa, where production is dominated by smallholders who are not yet ready to comply with these requirements.
Since nearly 60% of West African cocoa is exported to the EU, the postponement removes the immediate threat of a major disruption in supply during 2025–2026.
Downward pressure on prices is therefore strong in the short term, although cocoa prices are expected to remain relatively high due to structural challenges in the region.
Belgian agri‑food sector: resilient but under pressure
In Belgium, food product sales have remained relatively stable over the past two years, but volumes continue to decline as consumers face persistently high prices.
Specialized food retailers, often positioned in the premium segment, are particularly affected.
An improvement could occur in 2026, as real purchasing power is expected to strengthen. However, this can be challenged by a resurgence of inflation, especially within food.
Food production has also remained broadly stable, with an increase recorded in 2025. However, rising costs could similarly challenge the outlook. Beverage producers, meanwhile, continue to experience a decline in production – mirroring trends across much of Europe. This weakness stems from both price pressures and long‑term behavioural shifts toward lower alcohol consumption.
Insolvencies: a widespread increase in 2025
In 2025, insolvencies in the Belgian agri‑food sector increased by 8.4%, affecting around 350 companies.
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The most impacted segments are livestock farming, aquaculture, and related processing activities.
Food and beverage wholesalers also recorded an increase of +8.6%, or about 150 bankruptcies.
Bankruptcies among wholesalers of food, beverages, and tobacco also continued to rise in France and Germany in 2025 (up roughly 8% compared to 2024). In contrast, they declined in the Netherlands (approx. –20%) and the United Kingdom (approx. –13%), although UK levels remain above their pre‑pandemic baseline. Overall, insolvency risks for Belgian agri‑food exporters remain high in these key markets.
Compared to pre‑pandemic levels, bankruptcies remain significantly higher in the animal production and aquaculture sectors, reflecting structural cost pressures and the effects of recent outbreaks (bluetongue and avian flu).
Conclusion: persistent risks, but an adapting sector
All indicators show that the sector continues to operate under substantial pressure: rising costs, limited pricing power, and low-capacity utilisation.
Some well‑structured companies may be able to seize opportunities, but overall, the sector remains in a high‑risk environment, with only short‑term improvement expected.
In an economic context shaped by market volatility and rapidly evolving regulations, understanding risks is essential for agri‑food businesses. Coface contributes to this reflection by regularly sharing sector analyses and economic studies on the trends influencing our industry.
As a global specialist in credit insurance, Coface supports companies in managing customer risk. In the agri‑food sector – characterised by complex supply chains and sometimes lengthy payment terms – credit insurance is a key tool for securing activity.
It relies on three essential functions: continuous assessment of the financial health of commercial partners, proactive risk management through early detection of difficulties, and financial protection in the event of customer default through compensation and recovery mechanisms.
Adapted to both SMEs and internationally active groups, credit insurance helps secure cash flow and support commercial development in a sector where financial solidity is critical.