Domestic economy remains resilient despite moderating growth
The Irish economy is expected to do well through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, although the pace of expansion is likely to moderate following several years of exceptionally strong growth. Domestic demand continues to provide a solid foundation for economic activity, supported by a still-robust labour market, rising household incomes and sustained public investment. Household consumption has remained resilient in recent years, although spending growth is expected to slow as employment growth eases and inflation continues to weigh on purchasing power. Government measures aimed at limiting the impact of higher energy and living costs should provide some support to households, while public expenditure and investment are expected to remain important drivers of growth. Business investment is also likely to remain strong, particularly in infrastructure, technology and data-centre-related projects. However, the contribution from the multinational sector is less supportive in 2026 than in previous years. Following significant frontloading of activities and transactions during 2025, base effects are likely to weigh on headline growth figures, while a more uncertain global environment could reduce the pace of investment and trade-related activity among multinational enterprises.
While domestic demand should continue to underpin growth, the economy remains vulnerable to changes in the international environment, especially given the importance of multinational corporations to exports, investment and tax revenues.Ireland's open economy and strong links with the United States leave it particularly exposed to shifts in US trade, tax and industrial policies. At the same time, subdued economic growth among key European trading partners could limit export demand and business confidence.
After declining in 2025, corporate insolvencies have accelerated again during the first half of 2026, rising by around 5% year-on-year. The increase has been concentrated in wholesale and retail trade, information technology, agriculture and manufacturing. Looking ahead, cost pressures, weaker demand conditions and tighter financing conditions are likely to continue affecting businesses in vulnerable sectors. Risks remain particularly elevated in energy-intensive industries, including chemicals and parts of manufacturing, as well as in transport and logistics, where margins continue to face pressure.
Strong public finances despite higher spending
Ireland's public finances are expected to remain strong in 2026 and 2027, although fiscal surpluses are likely to narrow from the record levels seen in recent years. The government has continued an expansionary fiscal stance, increasing spending on housing, healthcare, infrastructure, climate-related investments and cost-of-living measures. Despite this, robust tax revenues – supported by high employment and continued multinational activity – should ensure that the public sector remains firmly in surplus.
As a result, public debt is expected to continue declining relative to the size of the economy, further strengthening Ireland's fiscal position. Nevertheless, policymakers remain aware of the concentration risk associated with corporation tax receipts, a significant proportion of which is generated by a relatively small number of multinational firms. This dependence continues to represent one of the principal long-term vulnerabilities in Ireland's public finances.
Ireland's current account balance is also expected to remain in surplus throughout 2026 and 2027. A large goods trade surplus will continue to underpin the external position, although the outlook remains sensitive to developments in global trade and potential changes in US-EU economic relations. The services balance is likely to remain broadly balanced overall, albeit with considerable volatility arising from multinational corporations' intellectual property and licensing transactions. Meanwhile, the primary income balance is expected to remain structurally negative due to the repatriation of profits by foreign-owned firms. Despite these distortions, Ireland's underlying external position remains strong, supported by the competitiveness of its export sector and continued inflows of foreign direct investment.
Political stability supports policy continuity
The general election of November 2024 resulted in the continuation of a broadly similar governing arrangement, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael forming a coalition government supported by a group of independent representatives. While Sinn Féin increased its parliamentary representation compared with the previous election, its electoral performance fell short of expectations and opinion polls since then have suggested a more fragmented opposition landscape. Recent polling indicates that gains by opposition parties have increasingly benefited smaller centre-left parties, including the Social Democrats, rather than Sinn Féin alone. The next general election must be held no later than January 2030.
The government's priorities remain centred on addressing long-standing challenges in housing, healthcare and infrastructure, while also responding to evolving geopolitical conditions. Defence and security policy have gained greater prominence in the past few years, with increased funding allocated to modernise Ireland's defence capabilities and strengthen cooperation with European partners. Although defence spending is expected to rise steadily over the coming years, it will remain modest by European standards as a share of GDP. Despite closer security cooperation with both the European Union and the United Kingdom, Ireland's longstanding policy of military neutrality remains broadly unchanged, making NATO membership unlikely in the foreseeable future.

United States of America
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Germany
Belgium
France
China