Beyond the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, the global monetary tightening and the multiple constraints on Chinese growth paint a gloomy outlook. In the short term, the economy seems to be settling into a regime of "stagflation", where almost no growth and rapidly rising prices coexist. The possibility of a global recession, meanwhile, is becoming clearer.
In this context, Coface is making general downward revisions to its GDP growth forecasts and its country and sectoral assessments. Check them out!
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The impact on corporate payments in 2022 appears to be moderate and comparatively lower than the shock on the economy. However, companies are vigilant in the short-term and very pessimistic about the future.
Christiane von Berg, our economist for the Northern Europe region, details the payment terms and expectations of companies in Germany.
Four months after the start of hostilities in Ukraine, first lessons can be drawn.
Which countries and sectors are doing best? Which ones are going to face major difficulties?
Read the forecasts from our Q2 Barometer now.
Medium & long-term knock-on effects of the war in Europe on global sectors trends: will there be resilient sectors?
In the short run, all sectors for which Coface publishes sector risk assessments in six regions worldwide will be impacted by the knock-on effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Which ones would be the most resilient sectors? Read our full study now!Read More
Coface China Corporate Payment Survey: Increasing risks in supply chain disruptions and rising raw material prices
Coface’s 2022 China Corporate Payment Survey shows that fewer firms encountered payment delays in 2021, but those that did report longer periods of overdue payments than in the previous year. The average payment delay rose from 79 days in 2020 to 86 days in 2021. Firms in 9 out of 13 sectors reported an increase in payment delays, led by agri-food, which recorded the largest increase of 43 days, followed by wood, transport, and textile.Read More
More than two months after the start of the war in Ukraine, of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, prospects for a rapid resolution of the war seem increasingly unlikely. As sanctions against Russia continue to pile up, a return to the pre-war situation seems illusory, even in the event of an early end to the conflict.Read More
According to Coface's 2021 study on the payment behaviour of companies in Morocco, contractual payment terms in the country remain long, reaching an average of 79 days. However, they have improved significantly, with a shorter duration of about 14 days compared to the previous survey conducted in 2019.Read More
2021 was an exciting year for Coface BeLux. We have not only supported our clients and brokers during their activity rebound, but we also helped them navigate that unusual situation by boosting their risk management skills with the Coface Trade Risk Academy.
Unfortunately, risks will not disappear in 2022 as the sanitary crisis is far from over. Still, we are confident and will continue to be agile thanks to the expertise of our 39 driven advisors.
We also have new initiatives which will bring additional value for Coface, its employees, partners, and clients.
WE ARE ALL LOOKING FORWARD TO STARTING THE NEW YEAR!
Coface launches "GlobaLiner", its new service offer designed to better meet the needs of multinational companies.Read More
As the Covid-19 situation begins to improve, notably with the implementation of vaccination campaigns, there has been a rebound in consumption, particularly in developed countries. For emerging countries, the economic recovery is benefiting export-oriented countries, but service-dependent economies are lagging behind. Read our in-depth analysis in our latest Country and Sector Risk Barometer.Read More
China will continue to expand its role as a main destination for Latin American exports at the expense of the U.S.
Coface observes that LatAm countries’ foreign sales growth rates are expected to exceed their domestic demand expansion. Indeed the region’s activity rebound should be lower than the global average recovery, and more specifically lower than the Chinese and U.S. recoveries. Therefore, sales to China and the U.S. should post a bright performance in 2021. In terms of significance for Latin American exports, China should continue to gain ground over the U.S.
The retail sector’s activity has been affected by the COVID crisis through social distancing measures and closure of stores. However, the effect of the pandemic on the sector greatly varies across countries and segments. Check our study to know it all.Read More
While the restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic put a temporary stop to the upsurge of protest movements, a new wave is on the horizon. Protests, mainly in emerging countries, are expected to increase due to an unprecedented deterioration of socio-economic indicators.Read More
The 5th edition of Coface’s survey on corporate payment experience in Germany suggests that German companies have acclimatised to the pandemic environment, with more companies offering payment terms and a positive outlook from surveyed companies.Read More
The UAE’s economy was hit by a double shock in 2020: the collapse in oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. According to preliminary estimates, the UAE’s economy shrank by 6.1% in 2020. However, the outlook is brighter for 2021. Coface expects growth at 3.1% thanks to a fast vaccination campaign, a sharp recovery of the global economy and the rebound in energy prices.Read More
The metals used in electric vehicles, such as lithium, cobalt and copper, are at the heart of the revolution currently taking place in the automotive industry. But imbalances between supply and demand are pushing up their prices, even though the market share of electric vehicles remains modest. In its latest analysis, Coface does not foresee any major changes in these price trends over the next two years.Read More
18 months after the start of the pandemic, access to vaccination is now the main factor setting the pace of people's daily lives and the global economy. GDP growth forecasts for 2021 have been revised upwards (+5.6%), but this is mainly the result of positive surprises from the United States. These improved growth prospects are reflected in world trade: after a 5% decline in volume last year, Coface forecasts an 11% increase for 2021.Read More
Asia Pacific: Corporate payment delay trend stabilized, companies see brighter outlook but risks and uncertainty remain
Coface’s 2021 Asia Corporate Payment Survey provides insights into the evolution of payment behavior and credit management practices of over 2,500 companies across Asia Pacific during a pandemic year. Respondents came from nine markets (Australia, China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan) and 13 sectors located in the Asia Pacific region.Read More