Country Risk Overview - October 2011
2011 WORLD GROWTH IS TRENDING DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A SLOWDOWN IN ADVANCED COUNTRIES
Disappointing growth figures for the second quarter of 2011, political tensions in the United States this summer around the question of the debt ceiling and the loss of its triple-A rating, the never-ending sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, the persistent lack of confidence on the financial markets, tensions on the money market and the vertiginous fall of bank share prices: So many negative signals that are likely to affect the global recovery observed since mid-2009. Global growth in 2011 will settle at 3.2%, representing a slowdown of 1.1 point of GDP compared to 2010.
Country risk assessment is downgraded in a context of defiance and deleveraging.
OUTSIDE THE EURO ZONE
Bankruptcies are trending up in the United States, whereas Iceland is recovering a positive growth.
The political context is stabilizing in Thailand.