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27/11/2018
Bedrijfspublicaties

Alle Coface Publicaties

13/03/2018
Economische Publicaties

Clash of the Titans: China’s rise fuels competition with Japan’s interests in Asia

China has undoubtedly modelled itself as the new champion of globalisation. Nowhere is this felt more strongly than in Asia (...)

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07/03/2018
Economische Publicaties

Companies in France: fewer business insolvencies, but still just as many “zombies”

The number of corporate insolvencies in France has continued to decline at the beginning of 2018: -8.3% year-on-year to end of January (...)

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06/03/2018
Economische Publicaties

Poland Payment Survey 2018: Payment delays mounting amid robust economic growth

The second edition of Coface’s survey on payment experiences in Poland was carried out in December 2017 (...)

Meer Lezen
27/02/2018
Economische Publicaties

Mexico Automotive Industry: Headwinds coming from the North

The Mexican automotive industry has experienced strong growth since the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. (...)

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26/01/2018
Economische Publicaties

Coface handbook: Country & Sector risks 2018

Download the Coface handbook about Country & Sector risks 2018. Tools for identifying, assessing and monitoring the risks businesses are facing.

Meer Lezen
23/01/2018
Economische Publicaties

Sectorenrisicobeoordelingen - Januari 2018

13 Belangrijke sectoren beoordeeld wereldwijd

Meer Lezen
23/01/2018
Economische Publicaties

Kaart met landenrisicobeoordelingen - Januari 2018

160 Landen onder het vergrootglas

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17/12/2017
Economische Publicaties

Turkey: Impressive growth but increasing vulnerability to external factors

Turkey’s economy grew substantially during the first three quarters of 2017, surging by 7.4% compared to a year earlier (...)

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12/12/2017
Economische Publicaties

France: will the organic agrofood sector be forced to abandon its principles?

The agrofood industry is facing a number of challenges in Europe1, including the central issue of how to share created value.

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11/12/2017
Economische Publicaties

Infographics - French organic food sector: how can it increase scale without abandoning its original principles?

Strength of organic companies and consumption growing faster than supply

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27/11/2017
Economische Publicaties

Germany’s corporate payment survey: a better year, particularly for exporters

Coface carried out its second payment survey for Germany this year, making it possible to compare results between the two surveys (...)

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24/11/2017
Economische Publicaties

Poland insolvencies Focus: Are restructuring proceedings the remedy?

Business proceedings aimed at insolvencies and restructuring have been on rise in Poland this year.

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20/11/2017
Economische Publicaties

The UK automotive sector and Brexit – or, how to slow a rolling industry?

The UK automotive industry is entering a dry period. The voices of the main UK industry representatives and their concerns regarding the negative effects of a potential hard Brexit appear to remain unheard (...)

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08/11/2017
Economische Publicaties

Embargo on Qatar: Manageable for the time being, but not perennially

On June 5, 2017 Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain (known as the quartet) announced they were breaking diplomatic ties with Qatar (...)

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07/11/2017
Economische Publicaties

China's ambities in Sub-Saharaans Afrika: bilaterale handelsrelaties moeten in evenwicht gebracht worden

Falling in love is easier than staying in love: a tale of unbalanced exchanges and increasing dependency.

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07/11/2017
Economische Publicaties

Infografiek - Chinese ambitie in Sub-Sahara-Afrika

Onevenwichtige relatie tussen China en Afrika en dreiging van een verzwaking van de chinese vraag

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18/10/2017
Economische Publicaties

Argentina legislative elections: is the continuity of the pro-business direction at stake?

Since Mauricio Macri took office in mid-December 2015, the economy has started to recover

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29/09/2017
Economische Publicaties

Marocco: Drawing out of payment periods, a perplexing trend?

While more than 30% of respondents said in 2015 that that the time between the transmission of invoice and collection was between 30 and 60 days, this share decreased to 24% of respondents in 2016 and 11% of respondents in 2017.

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27/09/2017
Economische Publicaties

Are bond markets the new “spare tyre” for corporates in emerging economies?

If the year 2017 is synonymous with a slight economic upturn in the emerging markets, let’s not forget the previous three years were marked by increased corporate risk

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26/09/2017
Economische Publicaties

Country and sector risk Barometer Q3 2017 - Global growth recovery: a real or a false start?

For once, the summer proved to be particularly quiet. No major events disrupted the path taken by the world economy.

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26/09/2017
Economische Publicaties

Infographics - Sector risk assessments - 3rd Quarter 2017

12 Major sectors assessed worldwide, each quarter, by Coface.

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25/09/2017
Economische Publicaties

Kaart met landenrisicobeoordelingen - 3de trimester 2017

Each quarter Coface evaluates 160 countries with a unique methodology.

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08/09/2017
Economische Publicaties

Time to address the infrastructure gap in Latin America

During the commodity super-cycle that lasted over a decade, until around 2014, Latin American economies showed robust performance.

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07/09/2017
Economische Publicaties

COFACE CEE TOP 500 RANKING

The Top 500 companies generated EUR 580 billion in 2016 – a minor decrease of 0.6% – and experienced a greater downturn in net profit by -3.1% to EUR 26.3 billion.

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07/09/2017
Economische Publicaties

Central and Eastern Europe: Less business insolvencies despite temporary headwinds in the construction sector

Despite some slowdown last year, average GDP growth remained at a solid level of 2.9% in Central and Eastern Europe. Economies have been benefiting from [...]

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18/08/2017
Economische Publicaties

Tough funding conditions for GCC corporates: the hidden effect of lower oil prices

Oil prices declined by around 75% between mid- 2014 and January 2016 (...)

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31/07/2017
Economische Publicaties

Latin America: The winners and losers of "Trumponomics"

Political changes in the US have caused uncertainty over the trade policies that could be implemented and

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11/07/2017
Economische Publicaties

Asia Corporate Payment Survey 2016: tail risks are on the rise

Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in eight selected economies in the Asia Pacific

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05/07/2017
Economische Publicaties

A gust of optimism is blowing over the world economy

- Deze publicatie is enkel in het Engels beschikbaar -

At the end of the first quarter of 2017, we were wondering whether the timid global economic recovery was a flash in the pan (...)

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04/07/2017
Economische Publicaties

Kaart met landenrisicobeoordelingen 2de Trimester 2017

160 landen onder het vergrootglas

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07/06/2017
Economische Publicaties

In the face of Brexit, are British businesses left to sink or swim?

One year after the “yes” vote for Brexit, seen as traumatic, the time has come for the United Kingdom to accelerate the implementation of its exit from the European Union (EU).

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24/05/2017
Economische Publicaties

Russia – from recession to recovery, but to what extent and how fast?

Between 1999 and 2008, Russia’s GDP grew by an average of almost 7% per year. In 2009, the fall in oil prices led to a severe recession (-7.8%).

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22/05/2017
Economische Publicaties

UAE payments survey : slight payment delays expected, due to slower growth

Through the initiative of Coface, a world leader in trade credit management and risk information services, a credit opinion survey across the UAE was rolled out in order to map out major shifts and prevailing trends in company payments.

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02/05/2017
Economische Publicaties

Tekort aan werkkrachten in Centraal en Oost-Europa : een groeiende bezorgdheid voor bedrijven

Labour markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region are continuing to improve.
Unemployment rates have reached the lowest levels ever recorded and most CEE economies are enjoying lower unemployment than the EU average

(Deze publicatie is enkel in het Engels beschikbaar)

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02/05/2017
Bedrijfspublicaties

2016 ACTIVITEITENRAPPORT

2016, werken naar de grondige transformatie van onze Groep toe. We streven ernaar om Coface tot de meest alerte wereldwijde kredietverzekeringspartner binnen de sector te maken.

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21/04/2017
Economische Publicaties

Insolventies in de bouwsector in Frankrijk: intrestvoet cruciaal

With an average increase in corporate insolvencies of 4.2% per year, 137,520 companies went bankrupt between 2008 and 2014

(Deze publicatie is enkel in het Engels beschikbaar)

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31/03/2017
Economische Publicaties

China corporate payment survey: the devil is in the detail

In 2016, credit extension practices in China differed from those seen in previous years. Fewer Chinese companies offered credit sales – but (...)

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21/03/2017
Economische Publicaties

Kaart landenrisico's - 1e kwartaal 2017

160 landen onder de loep.

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14/03/2017
Economische Publicaties

RMB depreciation, capital flow measures and new monetary stance - What are the implications for Chinese corporates?

The potential depreciation of the renminbi (RMB), along with the implementation of capital flow measures, are longstanding concerns for China.

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13/03/2017
Economische Publicaties

Business insolvencies in France: new year starts where the old year left off

January 2017 saw the drop in insolvencies, which started in May 2014, reach 58,031 - its lowest figure since September 2012 (-2.8% on the same period in 2016)

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24/01/2017
Economische Publicaties

Panorama : An economic upturn in the face of uncertainty

Starting with falling oil prices and financial markets in the winter, the Brexit referendum in the summer and the election of Donald Trump in the autumn, 2016 was punctuated by a series of upsets.

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24/01/2017
Economische Publicaties

Country risk assessment map - January 2017 - 4th quarter 2016

Despite the recent economic upturn, uncertainties will continue to dominate the global economic climate this year.

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11/01/2017
Economische Publicaties

Panorama Poland payment survey - Payment delays pervade polish corporates

Coface’s payment survey confirms that sales on credit are being extensively used by Polish companies. Although credit periods have become common practice, it does not mean that receivables are being paid on time.

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20/12/2016
Economische Publicaties

Still tough times for South Africa?

South Africa’s growth performance has been in decline since the global financial crisis. Since peaking in 2011, the growth rate (hit by lower commodity prices and power supply problems) has continued to slow.

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19/12/2016
Economische Publicaties

Turkey: end of the tulip period?

Turkey’s economy experienced several shocks during 2015 and 2016. Heightened political uncertainties, regional tensions, the US rate hike process, the credit rating downgrade and domestic security issues, have all resulted in (...)

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13/12/2016
Economische Publicaties

Uberisation of the economy in France: a new weapon of mass creative destruction?

Why is the collaborative economy so captivating in France? First of all, because it is synonymous with youth and innovation. But also because sectors that (...)

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13/12/2016
Economische Publicaties

Company insolvencies in France: a further fall in 2017

The number of insolvencies in France continued to fall in the twelve months to end-October 2016 (-1.0%) (...)

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30/11/2016
Economische Publicaties

Panorama - German Economy in 2017: Stable, but not staid

The signs for Germany’s further economic development are promising, with a high level of stability.

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25/11/2016
Economische Publicaties

Barometer of sector risks in the world - 4th Quarter 2016

For this quarter, the result is clearly negative once again, as eight sectors have been downgraded and only one upgraded. The changes concern North America (increased risks in the retail, textile-clothing, paper-wood and transport sectors), Western Europe (downgrade of the agrofood sector) and Central Europe (downgrades for construction and IT & communications, but an upgrade for the transport sector) and Middle East (downgrade for IT & communications).

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25/11/2016
Economische Publicaties

Infographics - Sectorrisicobeoordelingen - 4e Kwartaal 2016

12 Belangrijke sectoren beoordeeld wereldwijd

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08/11/2016
Economische Publicaties

Japan : Waarom werkt de eerste hervormingspijl van de Abenomics niet ?

Sinds de lancering van Abenomics begin 2013 heeft de BOJ (Bank of Japan) haar monetair beleid op een agressieve manier versoepeld, gekend als de “eerste hervormingspijl van de Abenomics”. Drieënhalf jaar later blijkt het effect ervan op de Japanse export en de yen voor een deel te zijn uitgewerkt. Een verduidelijking.

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07/11/2016
Economische Publicaties

Mexico’s economy: more difficult times ahead

Mexico’s economy has been increasing above the Latin American average since 2012. While the region contracted by 0.5 % in 2015, Mexico, its second largest economy, grew by 2.5 %.

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17/10/2016
Economische Publicaties

Zal politiek risico een schaduw werpen op 2017?

De afgelopen 12 maanden hebben een vermenigvuldiging van het aantal politieke termijnen met onverwachte resultaten en onzekere gevolgen in Europa laten zien.

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14/10/2016
Economische Publicaties

160 landen onder het vergrootglas

160 landen onder het vergrootglas

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13/10/2016
Economische Publicaties

Kaart landenrisicobeoordelingen • 3e kwartaal 2016

160 landen onder het vergrootglas

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23/09/2016
Economische Publicaties

Latijns-Amerika : Waarom geraakt de uitvoer van geproduceerde goederen maar niet van de grond?

• De Latijns-Amerikaanse export kreeg eerder een boost door de grote honger van China naar grondstoffen en door de rally van de internationale grondstofprijzen
• Desondanks liet de export van geproduceerde goederen tijdens de voorbije twee decennia zwakke prestaties optekenen
• Hoge arbeidskosten, een gebrekkige infrastructuur en beperkte handelsakkoorden waren de ondermijnende factoren voor de prestaties van de 6 geanalyseerde landen : Argentinië, Brazilië, Mexico, Colombia, Chile en Peru.
• Een sterke heropleving van de export van geproduceerde goederen is in de nabije toekomst onwaarschijnlijk

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20/09/2016
Economische Publicaties

Marokko : Coface-onderzoek naar het betalingsgedrag van de bedrijven

Betaaltermijnen lopen op, terwijl de economie vertraagt.

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16/09/2016
Economische Publicaties

Bedrijfsinsolventies in Polen : in dalende lijn temidden van een degelijke economische groei

Ook voor de rest van 2016 en 2017 wordt een verdere daling van het aantal procedures verwacht.

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14/09/2016
Economische Publicaties

Ondanks een zwakkere groei in Q2 blijft Coface positief over de Franse economie

• Q2 geïmpacteerd door externe factoren
• Met 1,6% blijven de groeivooruitzichten positief voor geheel 2016
• Schuldgraad van de ondernemingen : Frankrijk vertoont als enig Europees land een verslechtering, maar het blijft beneden het alarmpeil
• Aantal bedrijfsinsolventies blijft neerwaarts gericht : -3,4% in 2016
• Het sectorrisico blijft stabiel: van alle 12 sectoren krijgt enkel de agro/voedingsindustrie een downgrade; de automotive wordt ge-upgrade.

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09/09/2016
Economische Publicaties

De agro- en voedingssector in Noord-Afrika : van strategisch belang, maar afhankelijk van de grillen van Moeder Natuur

Verschillende gunstige factoren geven een boost aan de sector, maar het klimaat, de infrastructuur en het beleid van de overheid zijn belangrijke stoorzenders

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05/09/2016
Economische Publicaties

Coface publiceert de TOP 500 bedrijven in Centraal- en Oost-Europa

De grootste bedrijven profiteren duidelijk van de economische hoogconjunctuur
Internationale kredietverzekeraar Coface publiceert voor het achtste jaar haar studie over de Top 500 bedrijven in Centraal- en Oost-Europa. In de studie worden de 500 grootste bedrijven van de regio gerangschikt volgens omzet, en geanalyseerd volgens criteria zoals tewerkstelling, ondernemersklimaat, sector en afzetmarkt. Daarnaast worden alle 14 landen individueel economisch doorgelicht.
Van alle landen blijkt ook dit jaar Polen opnieuw de groeikampioen te zijn, gevolgd door Tsjechië en Hongarije

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31/08/2016
Economische Publicaties

De VS farma-industrie onder de loep genomen

Een hervorming van de publieke gezondheidszorg en een daling van de prijzen van de geneesmiddelen dringt zich op.
(Perbericht en Panorama in het Engels)

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26/08/2016
Economische Publicaties

COFACE ENQUÊTE OVER HET BETALINGSGEDRAG BIJ DUITSE ONDERNEMINGEN

Uit een enquête van Coface over het betalingsgedrag in Duitsland gevoerd bij meer dan 850 bedrijven, blijkt dat ondanks de stevige economische toestand van het land, 84% getroffen wordt door laattijdige betalingen vanwege hun klanten. Niettemin is er een lichte daling van het totaal bedrag aan onbetaalde vorderingen en blijft de duur van de betalingsvertragingen binnen de perken. Mogelijke liquiditeitsrisico’s door langdurige wanbetalingen blijven dus al bij al beperkt.
Het onderzoek licht eveneens de verschillen per sector toe.
(Persbericht en studie in het Engels)

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09/08/2016
Economische Publicaties

Economie in China: sector winnaars en verliezers

De lopende structurele hervormingen in China resulteren in zowel sector winnaars als verliezers, gebaseerd op zijn potentiële groei op de middellange en lange termijn, de structurele vraag en het overheidsbeleid.

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18/07/2016
Economische Publicaties

Nieuwe Coface Barometer van de Sectorrisico’s in de wereld

Ieder kwartaal maakt kredietverzekeraar Coface een update van zijn vooruitzichten voor 12 ondernemingssectoren in 6 regio’s. Voor het eerst werden deze regionale beoordelingen ook aangevuld met gedetailleerde sectorbeoordelingen voor 17 landen : de Verenigde Staten, Japan, Duitsland, Frankrijk, het Verenigd Koninkrijk, Italië, Spanje, China, Indië, Brazilië, Mexico, Polen, Rusland, Turkije, Saoudi-Arabië, de VAE en Zuid-Afrika. Terwijl de balans van de risico-ontwikkeling in het tweede trimester min of meer in evenwicht lijkt in vergelijking tot het vorig kwartaal (6 downgrades en 7 upgrades, versus 9 downgrades voor slechts 2 upgrades in het eerste kwartaal), blijft het niettemin opvallende verschillen tussen de regio’s verbergen. In de opkomende landen in het bijzonder blijven de sectorrisico’s verder oplopen, getuige hiervan 5 van de in totaal 6 downgrades, terwijl anderzijds de sectorale risico’s in Europa zijn afgenomen ondanks de onzekerheden ingevolge de uitkomst van het Brexit-referendum.

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13/07/2016
Economische Publicaties

Centraal en Oost-Europa : « minder faillissementen dankzij een gunstig economisch klimaat », zo staat te lezen in het recentste Coface Panorama

De landen van de Centraal- en Oost-Europese regio konden vorig jaar profiteren van gunstige economische omstandigheden, wat leidde tot een verbetering van de financiële toestand van de lokale ondernemingen. Het aantal bedrijfsinsolventies daalde in 2015 in 9 van de 13 landen, terwijl het BBP gewogen regionale gemiddelde van de faillissementen -14% bedroeg. De regio vertoonde niettemin grote onderlinge verschillen, met een tweecijferige negatieve groei voor Ukraïne en Litouwen, tegenover een beduidende verbetering voor Roemenië en Hongarije. Coface voorspelt dat de bedrijven er ook in 2016 zullen kunnen blijven profiteren van gunstige omstandigheden en dat de het aantal faillissementen verder zal dalen met 5,3%.

(Persbericht en Panorama in het Engels)

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11/07/2016
Economische Publicaties

Verenigde Arabische Emiraten: naar een nieuw tijdperk van tragere groei

Dat de VAE de meest gediversifieerde economie van de Golf-regio zijn, maakt ze niet immuun voor de val van de energieprijzen. De kleinhandel en het toerisme staan voor uitdagingen.

• Economische diversificatie, politieke stabiliteit en een gezond financieel systeem beperken de gevolgen van de lagere olieprijzen
• Het aandeel van de niet-koolwaterstof gebonden activiteiten in het BBP van de VAE steeg in 2015 naar 75%
• De gezinsuitgaven en de bestedingen van de toeristen zullen naar verwachting in 2016 verder groeien
• De sector van de kleinhandel trekt buitenlandse investeringen aan, maar wordt geconfronteerd met problemen van financiering en saturatie
• Het toerisme lijdt onder de waardevermindering van de Russische roebel en de euro
• China en Indië staan voor bijna een kwart van alle handelsstromen van de VAE

(volledige studie en persbericht beschikbaar in het Engels)

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29/06/2016
Economische Publicaties

Sub-Sahara Afrika: geraakt maar niet gezonken

De trage groei van de wereldeconomie, in het bijzonder gekenmerkt door de crisis in China, resulteert in een shock van de grondstoffenprijzen. Sub-Sahara Afrika is niet gespaard in deze wereldwijde storm en streeft nu naar een nieuwe groei.

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29/06/2016
Economische Publicaties

Landenrisico Barometer 2e kwartaal 2016 – wereldeconomie last van trage groei

De wereldwijde economie blijft steken in een “Japanse” val van trage groei, ondanks het steeds meer expansieve monetair beleid.

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29/06/2016
Economische Publicaties

Kaart landenbeoordelingen - 2e kwartaal 2016

Coface helpt u bij het beoordelen van de landenrisico's in 160 landen - Download onze wereldkaart met landenbeoordelingen.

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17/06/2016
Economische Publicaties

Bedrijfsfaillissementen in regio Noord-Europa: tragere afname in 2016

Faillissementen drastisch gedaald in vrijwel alle landen in de regio in de loop van vorig jaar – voornamelijk de vier Noord-Europese (NER) landen; Nederland, Duitsland, Zweden en Denemarken lichten we uit in de panorama.

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31/05/2016
Economische Publicaties

Geen verbetering van het betalingsgedrag van ondernemingen in de regio Asia Pacific in 2015

Coface voert een jaarlijks onderzoek uit naar het betalingsgedrag en de betalingservaringen in 8 verschillende economieën in Azië en de Pacific. Hiervoor werden 2.793 ondernemingen bevraagd uit Australië, China, Hong Kong, Indië, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan en Thailand. Het onderzoek bekeek de de ontwikkeling van de betalingen door ondernemingen in 11 activiteitssectoren. 85% van de ondernemingen bleek uitgestelde betaling aan hun klanten te hebben toegestaan om een oplossing te kunnen bieden aan het probleem van een tekort aan cash.

Enkele conclusies:
• 70% van de ondernemingen ondervond laattijdige betalingen, wat geen verbetering inhoudt ten opzichte van 2014
• 56% is van oordeel dat de groei van de wereldeconomie het in 2016 niet beter zal doen
• India, China en Singapore lieten op het vlak van betalingservaring een verslechtering optekenen, in de overige landen bleef het stabiel
• De meest risicovolle sectoren zijn constructie, industriële machinebouw & electronica, automotive & transport en metaal

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25/05/2016
Economische Publicaties

Is de Franse economie na een aantal valse starts eindelijk gelanceerd ?

• Verschillende indicatoren over het 1e kwartaal (groei, uitgaven door de gezinnen, investeringen) zetten aan tot optimisme
• De enige smet op het blazoen : de terugloop van de export ingevolge de economische groeivertraging van de opkomende economieën en het gebrek aan concurrentievermogen
• Een forse verbetering van de faillissementsgraad (-3,2% verwacht voor 2016), met uitzondering van de sector van textiel en kleding en van de regio Ile-de-France
• De helft van alle activiteitssectoren vertonen beterschap
• Wegtransport gehinderd door de concurrentiekloof

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25/05/2016
Bedrijfspublicaties

2015 ACTIVITEITENRAPPORT

Wat de omvang, de nationaliteit of de sector ook moge zijn, we informeren onze klanten over de huidige marktproblemen teneinde hen bij te staan bij het onder controle brengen van hun financiële risico's.

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17/05/2016
Economische Publicaties

Brazilië in het oog van de cycloon : wat valt te verwachten ?

Politieke impasse blijft duren. Economisch geen beterschap vὸὸr 2017. Betalings- en faillissementsrisico’s op Braziliaanse ondernemingen lopen verder op in alle activiteitssectoren, met de bouwsector, auto-industrie en de staalsector op kop.

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09/05/2016
Economische Publicaties

Hongarije : in de startblokken voor duurzame groei ?

Particuliere consumptie neemt toe – maar de ondernemingen blijven voor uitdagingen staan

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14/04/2016
Economische Publicaties

Metaalsector: productie tegen elke prijs?

De solvabiliteit van staalproducenten zwakker dan ooit. Voor 2018 geen verbetering te verwachten.

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13/04/2016
Economische Publicaties

Barometer sectorrisico's - april 2016

Wereldwijde sector risico beoordelingen van Coface voor 12 sectoren, in 6 regio's.

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13/04/2016
Economische Publicaties

Infografic: Sector risico beoordelingen • 1ste helft 2016

12 major sectors assessed worldwide.

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25/03/2016
Economische Publicaties

Landenrisico Barometer 1e kwartaal 2016

Trage groei, de afwezigheid van inflatiedruk, het monetaire beleid nog altijd expansief en de toegenomen volatiliteit op de financiële markten: dit zijn vier karakteristieke elementen in het begin van 2016 (...)

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24/03/2016
Economische Publicaties

Infographic: Kaart Landenrisico's - Maart 2016

160 landen onder het vergrootglas

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24/03/2016
Economische Publicaties

Opkomende economieën : herrijst de feniks uit zijn as ?

Hoewel de huidige crisis in de opkomende landen verbazing wekt door zijn intensiteit, met een halvering van de economische groei op vijf jaar tijd en een verhoogde blootstelling aan wisselkoersrisico’s en schulden, is het geen uitzonderlijk fenomeen. Gelijkaardige crisissen waargenomen in de jaren negentig, eindigden met een plotse snelle heropleving van de economische activiteit, ondanks een aanzwellende kapitaaluitstroom en het uitblijven van een herstel in bankkredieten. Gemiddeld bereikten deze opkomende economieën in twee à drie jaar hun productiepeil van voor de crisis, zelfs indien hun lange termijngroei langdurig zwak bleef.

Wie van de huidige opkomende landen kan hun ondernemingen vandaag een spoedig economisch herstel bieden ? Uit het staal van 34 landen die door Coface onderzocht werden, beantwoorden er slechts 4 aan de drie essentiële criteria: verbetering van de prijsconcurrentiepositie dankzij de waardedaling van de munt sinds 2013, schuldcapaciteit van de ondernemingen, en een matig politiek risico. Het gaat over Tsjechië, Polen, Chili en Thailand.

(Volledige studie en persbericht beschikbaar in het Engels)

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17/03/2016
Economische Publicaties

China : onderzoek betalingsgedrag Corporates

Slechts een minderheid aan bedrijven in China blijft nog gespaard van achterstallige betalingen: liefst 80% van de ondernemingen werd in 2015 geïmpacteerd.

Uit een recent credit risk management onderzoek van Coface bij Corporates, waaraan 1.000 ondernemingen gevestigd in China deelnamen, is gebleken dat het betalingsgedrag van ondernemingen in 2015 verder verslechterde, met 8 op 10 ondernemingen die achterstallige betalingen ondervinden. Coface voorspelt dat de economische groei in 2016 verder zal vertragen tot 6.5% (vs 6.9% in 2015). Bovenop de onopgeloste problemen van de hoge schuldgraad en de overcapaciteit in veel sectoren, zijn de neerwaartse druk op de Chinese munt (RMB) en de grote volatiliteit van de aandelenmarkten belangrijke kopzorgen voor de Chinese markt in 2016. Een verbetering op korte termijn van het aantal wanbetalingen behoort niet echt tot de verwachtingen.

(Volledige studie en persbericht beschikbaar in het Engels)

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16/03/2016
Economische Publicaties

Iran: sharp turn ahead, drive carefully

After five years of sanctions, Iran is finally to rejoin the global community. The return of Iran should have an effect on international growth through the oïl channel but above all, will bring huge changes to Iran itself. International sanctions have impacted the Iranian economy. Two consecutive years of negative growth and runaway inflation have tested Iran’s resistance model to its limit. The lifting of the EU embargo will allow Iran to revive its oil sector and return to the global market. The country is perceived as a new Eldorado, with its 78 million potential consumers.

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02/03/2016
Economische Publicaties

The German economy: safe inside, riskier outside

The German economy has changed its growth model during recent years. While internal demand (especially private consumption) – was sluggish and weak throughout most of the 2000s, it is currently the (...)

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17/02/2016
Economische Publicaties

Panorama bedrijfsfaillissementen in Frankrijk

Lessen getrokken uit 2015, hoopvol voor 2016 : naar een voorzichtige normalisering van de ondernemingstoestand
• Voor het 2e opeenvolgende jaar werd een daling opgetekend : -2,1% tegenover 2014
• Faillissementsgraad keert terug naar het pre-crisis niveau
• Verslechtering tekent zich op in 2 sectoren – diensten aan particulieren en textiel – evenals in 3 regio’s waaronder Ile-de-France
• Het geleidelijk herstel van de Franse economie zou in 2016 tot een terugloop met -3,5% van het aantal faillissementen moeten leiden
(studie beschikbaar in Engels)

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17/02/2016
Economische Publicaties

China´s role in Latin America is much more than a trade issue

During the China-Celac Forum, held at the beginning of last year, China announced its intention to increase its investment stock in Latin America to (...)

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26/01/2016
Economische Publicaties

Country Risk Barometer Key challenges of 2016

After US households in 2007-2008 and Eurozone states in 2011-2012, emerging countries are now getting their turn at the epicentre of the storm, in part because of excessive debt. How did that happen? Growth cut in half in the emerging world between 2010 and 2015, highly expansionary monetary policies after the Lehman Brothers crisis, and the drop in commodity prices since mid-2014 are all part of the answer.

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23/12/2015
Economische Publicaties

Coface-studie : Betalingsrisico’s bij export naar Turkije lopen sterk op

Turkse ondernemingen hebben in 2015 fors geleden onder de sterke volatiliteit en ontwaarding van hun munt, de lira. De krimpende winstmarges en de toename aan onbetaalde cheques (+38% in volume!) zijn een belangrijke graadmeter voor een verslechterend betalingsgedrag vanwege Turkse bedrijven. De kwetsbaarheid van de Turkse economie voor externe ontwikkelingen, de recente spanningen tussen Turkije en Rusland, evenals andere geopolitieke risico’s zullen de betalingsrisico’s voor export naar Turkije nog verder doen oplopen. De studie van Coface zoomt verder in op de sectoren die het meest geïmpacteerd zullen worden: de metaalsector, voeding en textiel.

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14/12/2015
Economische Publicaties

Poland Retail Sector – Household spending is supporting the economy but challenges remain

Retail trade benefits from good prospects of consumer demand which, however, will not eliminate challenges for the sector including an intense competition and the implementation of new levy for retailers. Foreign chains will remain dominant taking an advantage of their large-scale bargaining position and offering the most attractive prices for consumers even despite being charged by the new tax.

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08/12/2015
Economische Publicaties

In front of the globalisation of the wine market, Europe bends but does not break

European wine consumption has fallen over these past years, like that of France, which is a third of what it was 50 years ago.

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08/12/2015
Economische Publicaties

Barometer sector risks in the world - December 2015

Amongst the 14 business sectors monitored in three main regions of the world (Western Europe, North America and emerging Asia), three were downgraded during the third quarter of 2015: metallurgy in Europe, retailing in North America and textiles-clothing in emerging Asia.

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24/11/2015
Economische Publicaties

France overview third quarter 2015

Tenuous but confirmed. These are the terms that best describe France’s current growth - as illustrated by the figures for the third quarter, published in early November. Household consumption has increased, even if only modestly, due to gains in purchasing power as a result of almost zero inflation and despite the ever-rising unemployment rate.

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16/11/2015
Economische Publicaties

Egypt: slow recovery, structural challenges

Coface estimates that growth will increase to 4.4% for 2015/2016.

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03/11/2015
Economische Publicaties

Brazil - No quick fix for the crisis

Brazil has grown over the last decade, as a result of the boom in commodity prices and strong household consumption. The country endured the 2008-2009 crisis, thanks to liquidity injections from public banks.

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19/10/2015
Economische Publicaties

De stevige economische groei in Polen leidt tot een duurzame daling van het aantal faillissementen

The increased economic activity in Poland already reached levels required to stabilise the number of company insolvencies. The current global economic situation could be summarised as a gradual recovery for advanced economies and turbulent times for emerging countries.

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15/10/2015
Economische Publicaties

Focus on the future of solar energy in Europe: photovoltaics

Despite competition from China and the end of subsidies, the revival of the European photovoltaic industry seems likely.
Although photovoltaics only accounts for 5.3% of total electricity consumption in Europe, this sector has benefited from worldwide momentum in favour of "greener" energy consumption. Between 2004 and 2012 European electricity from photovoltaics increased sharply, from 0.7 to 62.4 billion KWh. This growth was driven by Germany, Spain and Italy, where 80% of Europe's photovoltaic facilities were located. The sudden expansion of photovoltaics was made possible by favourable government policies (a system of renewable purchase obligations and subsidies), plus the sharp and continued drop in the price of installations, intensified by Chinese competition. Europe led the field at that time, accounting for 75% of worldwide production in 2012.

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15/10/2015
Economische Publicaties

Barometer sector risks in the world - October 2015

In a context of low growth, the global sectoral dynamics are mixed. In this overview we analyse five major sectors: automotive, energy, metals, information and communication technologies (ICT) and paper-wood, in North America, emerging Asia and in Western Europe.

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18/09/2015
Economische Publicaties

Asia challenged by China’s slowdown

The Chinese economy has been in the spotlight for several months: devaluation of the yuan, stock market collapse, falling property prices, fears of an excessive economic slowdown, doubts about the reliability of published data and, more generallyspeaking, uncertainties about the rebalancing process the authorities have launched. In this anxiety-provoking environment, other Asian countries seem to be the first potential victims in the event of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.

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18/09/2015
Economische Publicaties

Country Risk Barometer Q3 2015

For the fourth consecutive year, global growth will fail to exceed 3%. At the beginning of the year however, this target did not appear unattainable, as the highly expansionary monetary policies in place, combined with the fall in the oil price and less restrictive fiscal policies, were expected to effectively accelerate growth. But this was not the case. Who is at fault? Chiefly the emerging markets, with Russia and Brazil in deep recession, and with growth slowing down more rapidly than expected in China, while failing to take off in South Africa or in Turkey.

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16/09/2015
Economische Publicaties

Gulf countries: various reactions to the same shock

What are the impacts of lower oil prices on the gulf countries economy. Focus on Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. What are the diversification strategies and the region’s integration with international trade. Focuses on the food and beverage sector in the UAE and automotive sector in Saudi Arabia.

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09/09/2015
Economische Publicaties

Latin America - Activity in the region still decelerating

Growth in Latin America has been slowing down since 2011, and was estimated at 1.2 % in 2014 . This lacklustre result, caused by weak domestic fundamentals, were exacerbated by cyclical factors such as the decline of commodity prices - and particularly the plunge in oil prices experienced since the second half of 2014.

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06/09/2015
Economische Publicaties

Company insolvencies in Western Europe: slight lull being confirmed for 2015

In this first overview of company insolvencies in Europe, Coface examines the following question: Was the return to growth observed in Europe strong enough to bring about a lasting reduction in business failures? For 10 out of the 12 Western European countries studied, the answer is «yes».

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22/07/2015
Economische Publicaties

Automotive Sector Central Europe

De COE-zone is een aantrekkelijke bestemming geworden voor investeringen door wereldwijde autobouwers. In 2014 werden 3,6 miljoen voertuigen geproduceerd in Oost-Europa, wat goed is voor 21% van de totale EU-productie. In de COE-landen die geanalyseerd worden door Coface, zijn er 33 autofabrieken, waarvan de meeste opgericht werden dankzij instromen van buitenlandse directe investeringen. Uit de analyse blijkt dat, ondanks de recente sterke dynamiek van de autoverkoop door lokale klanten, fabrieken in Centraal- en Oost-Europa in hoge mate afhankelijk blijven van de buitenlandse vraag.

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09/07/2015
Bedrijfspublicaties

2014 Activity Report

The group’s 2014 activity report is available.

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19/06/2015
Economische Publicaties

Global Country Risk Outlook June 2015

In this panorama, we first set out a study examining the economic situation and outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.

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06/06/2015
Economische Publicaties

Turkey : Challenges amid global changes

After a decade of well-imple­mented reforms and high growth rates, the Turkish economy seems to be struggling to maintain the same growth performance. Coface expects a growth rate of 3.5% this year - still a solid rate, yet below the po­tential growth rate estimated at 5% and lower than some of the country’s peers.

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01/06/2015
Economische Publicaties

Central and Eastern Europe: Company Insolvencies barometer June 2015

This publication is only available in English.

"Company insolvencies stabilized with a just minor drop by 0.5% as the regional average. Our scenario assumes that companies should experience further gradual decline of insolvencies this year facing good prospects for internal demand and more visible recovery of Eurozone as the CEE’s main trading partner."

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26/05/2015
Economische Publicaties

France: Insolvencies barometer April 2015

This publication is only available in english. This barometer sets out the latest trends for company insolvencies for the first four months of 2015 in France. After a 2.9% fall recorded for 2014, a level not observed since 2010 (-3.8%), the first four months of the year were marked by a rebound in insolvencies.

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26/05/2015
Economische Publicaties

End of european milk quotas: a new era for the french dairy sector

This publication is only available in english : Since the introduction of milk quotas in 1984, until their effective ending in 2015, milk production has undergone many reforms.

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29/04/2015
Economische Publicaties

Some key indicators from the survey revealed signs of a slight deterioration

This publication is only available in english. Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2014, the survey was conducted in 8 economies – Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, as well as, for the first time, Thailand. The study revealed some key indicators that showed signs of a (...)

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15/04/2015
Economische Publicaties

Barometer sector risks in the world

The changes in our sector assessments reflect the development of the world economy since the end of 2014, marked by the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies, the oil price collapse and gradual recovery in the Eurozone. These trends have had repercussions on most of the sectors we track.

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15/04/2015
Economische Publicaties

Panorama - The US automotive sector: a risky recovery ?

The automotive sector in the US, deeply impacted by the onset of the 2007 crisis, seems to be currently a part of a virtuous circle.
As the car sales are on an upward trend, some risks could derail the sector economy, though.

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26/03/2015
Economische Publicaties

Panorama Global Country Risk Outlook

This panorama is only available in english: In this panorama we first set out a study examining how the advanced economies are facing up to the challenge of weak economic growth since the Lehman Brothers collapse, that is for the past seven years now! Some observers are even talking of "secular stagnation". But, in our view, not all the advanced economies are facing the same challenges regarding this risk of longterm stagnation. We believe that (...)

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23/03/2015
Economische Publicaties

Panorama Overview of Czech Republic

This publication is available only in english: The Czech Republic is back on fast track. After falling into recession in 2012 and 2013 due to sharp fiscal consolidation and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, the economy regained momentum reaching solid growth rate of 2.0% in 2014 and should gain speed with (...)

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16/03/2015
Economische Publicaties

Company insolvency trends in Brazil

This publication is available only in English: Ongoing economic scenario in Brazil remains sensitive, Coface expects GDP to break even in 2014 and activity should contract by 0.5% in 2015. Industry dropped by 3.2% in 2014 and will probably record another negative year in 2015. The year has just started, but it may reserve some negative surprises.

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09/03/2015
Economische Publicaties

Panorama China Payment Survey

This publication is available only in English : Coface conducts an annual survey of payment experience in China. With 80% of the survey respond-ents shared overdue experience and 56.7% of them saw an increase in overdue amount over the past year, the overall payment experience in China remained very challenging in 2014 (...)

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04/03/2015
Economische Publicaties

Panorama : Latijns-Amerika

This publication is available only in English : Latin America is a major producer of commodities and recent drop in oil prices is impacting countries of the region in different ways. Some of them may benefit from lower international quotation, others are negatively impacted already in the short term and finally a third group could be affected in the medium term only.

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19/01/2015
Economische Publicaties

Middle East and North Africa Panorama: What progress after the arab spring?

This panorama is available only in English

How do the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies perform after the social and political turmoil caused by the so-called "Arab Spring" late in 2010? Have social and economic demands of protesters resulted in a healthier economic outlook in these countries?

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19/01/2015
Economische Publicaties

Panorama Turkey: Insolvencies

This Panorama is available only in English.

Disclosure of the exit strategy by FEDChairman Ben Bernanke in May 2013 triggered a new period marked by a change in the risk perception towards developing economies in financial markets. Turkey entered this period with a high current accounts deficit, a production sector substantially dependent on imports and three successive elections.

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20/11/2014
Economische Publicaties

Panorama sector, European pharmaceutical companies : is austerity fatal ?

This end of year panorama starts with the risk assessment of 14 sectors in the three regions we monitor. North America is witnessing major evolutions. Our assessments in this region are improving for chemicals, transportation and textile-clothing. These three sectors are benefiting from the good shape of the American economy and from the fall in oil prices

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06/11/2014
Economische Publicaties

Panorama Poland insolvencies

Poland is a headline example of the country that didn’t record recession in recent years. However, in micro terms companies insolvencies have been on...

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24/10/2014
Economische Publicaties

Panorama Country Risk - World Trade: a Sluggish Spell?

This panorama first contains a study on World Trade. World trade stagnated in the first halfyear 2014 and is struggling to recover nearly 6 years after the start of crisis.

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12/06/2014
Economische Publicaties

Panorama Country Risk - The British recovery : miracle or mirage

Thanks to vigorous growth since the second quarter of 2012, we anticipate the UK economy to get back to its pre-crisis level in the third quarter of 2014.

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23/05/2014
Economische Publicaties

Changes regarding SMEs in France and Spain – Insolvency Barometer in France

New barometer of companies insolvencies in France : a lull is observed from January to April 2014, the number of insolvencies falling by 2.3%. This barometer is followed by a comparison between the situation
of SMEs in France and Spain.

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16/05/2014
Bedrijfspublicaties

2013 Activity Report

The group’s 2013 activity report is available. Besides elements on 2013 performance, the report contains general information about Coface, missions, governance, businesses, offer and analysis of the world macroeconomic situation.

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25/04/2014
Economische Publicaties

Electronics in Asia / Sector Barometer

Focus on the electronics industry in Emerging Asia, a region that has become in a matter of years the world’s workshop for many electronic components.

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06/03/2014
Economische Publicaties

Reality Check: Corporate Payment Trend and Sectorial Risk in China

The overall payment experience in China has deteriorated in 2013 compared to 2012.

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28/01/2014
Economische Publicaties

Panorama China : What to expect in 2014

A broad spectrum of exciting reform plans have been announced, and the government had a series of follow-up actions. But in the near-term, potential negative impacts on the real economy as a result of the reform effort and credit risks associated with the rising cost of fund have to be watched out for.

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17/12/2013
Economische Publicaties

Textiles - Upmarket positioning and innovation: Key to the success for the French and European textile industry?

You will find in it our usual barometer, which assesses the risks to which companies in fourteen key industrial sectors in emerging Asia, North America and Western Europe are exposed.
We have also included an analytical focus on European textiles. This traditional industry was affected very early by globalisation, and, in particular, competition from developing countries.

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21/11/2013
Economische Publicaties

Insolvencies in the construction sector in France: breaking all dangers

In this Panorama, you will find the Coface barometer, which analyzes the evolution of French insolvent companies between November 2012 and October 2013.
We then publish a study on insolvencies in the French construction sector, overrepresented in insolvencies compared to it weight in the economy.

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14/10/2013
Economische Publicaties

Should we stake everything on the Asian consumer?

This panorama contains a study on household consumption in Asia. How big is the rise in household consumption in this region? Have Asian households taken on too much debt? What are the specific consumer behaviour patterns in Asia? Which sectors are benefitting most from this expansion of consumption?

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26/09/2013
Economische Publicaties

Carmakers: Europe refocusing on emerging markets

This Panorama includes our global sector barometer, which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors in three of the world‘s major regions (European Union, North America and Emerging Asia) through a single credit risk indicator. In Europe, sector risks continue to deteriorate, especially in chemicals due to the remaining difficulties in the European industry, and also in the pharmaceutical branch due to the fiscal tightening measures taken by the governments.

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15/07/2013
Economische Publicaties

Brazil's economy: Worrying weaknesses?

Ranked seventh in the world (and the second largest emerging economy) by GDP size, Brazil is the archetypal emerging country. But, the Brazilians’ legendary optimism has been sorely tested for the last two years: Can the Brazilian economic engine be repaired?

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11/07/2013
Bedrijfspublicaties

2012 Activity Report

Jean-Marc Pillu, CEO of Coface:
"In 2012, we combined further profitability and growth, while continuing to assist our customers".

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20/06/2013
Economische Publicaties

What has happened to the Italian business model?

This panorama contains a study of the Italian economy, which analyses and interrogates both macro- and microeconomic issues. We also present the latest adjustments to our country assessment.

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04/06/2013
Economische Publicaties

Central European companies in crisis: why?

This new Panorama contains the results of our Company Insolvency Monitor from April 2012 to April 2013 and the results of a study on insolvencies among Eastern European countries, a region experiencing a sharp rise in insolvencies rate.

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18/04/2013
Economische Publicaties

Focus e-commerce / distribution

Coface releases a series of economic reports and is pleased to announce the publication of its second Panorama sector report. Readers will find in it a global sector barometer which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors. The originality of the analysis is that it is based on aggregating the accounts of 6,000 companies in three of the world’s major regions: the European Union, North America and Emerging Asia.

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20/03/2013
Economische Publicaties

Transformation of emerging country risk

In this Panorama, Coface highlights the radical transformation of risks in emerging countries. While traditional country risk (sovereign risk, external vulnerability) has appreciably declined, three new risks are appearing and need to be monitored.

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07/02/2013
Economische Publicaties

2013 Coface Country Risk Conference

The 17th Country Risk Conference held by Coface on 22 January 2013 has confirmed the complexity of a situation where, more than ever, the world seems to be «split in two»: advanced versus emerging countries.

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10/12/2012
Economische Publicaties

Switzerland: economy is bending

Investors have made it one of their favourite havens during this period of recurrent crises, from global finance to sovereign debt in the eurozone. Proverbial political stability, sound management of public finances, a complex but attractive tax system, many very innovative small businesses and a flexible labour market. Not forgetting, of course, a renowned financial market, making it a major player on the international scene in wealth management activities. These are strengths which sometimes turn into weaknesses.

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03/12/2012
Economische Publicaties

Focus : The world's steel

The "Panorama Sectors", a new quarterly publication of Coface, focuses on the sector risks in the world.

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18/10/2012
Economische Publicaties

India: Economic slowdown

The Indian economic engine is sputtering but continues to run: it suffers from persistent bottlenecks that the country and its companies have to contend in order to grow.

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18/10/2012
Economische Publicaties

United States: SMEs the backbone of the economy?

When public sector job creation runs out of steam, eyes turn to the private sector, which alone seems able to offer a solid basis for recovery in the months to come through investment and the hiring of workers.

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15/10/2012
Economische Publicaties

Updates and growth forecasts

The global economic slowdown is confirmed this fall, in line with the recession in the eurozone and the emerging market deceleration.

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11/10/2012
Economische Publicaties

Why are there less companies insolvencies in Germany?

Although the overall number of insolvencies continues to decline (-1.8% between September 2011 and August 2012), the summer of 2012 confirms the trend that began last Spring with an important growth in their cost (+17%) and a correlative increase in unemployment (+3.3%). The barometer presented in this panorama analyses this development, principally caused by the difficulties of larger French companies. A list is also given of the riskier sectors, those where risks are deteriorating and those which have been relatively spared.

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09/08/2012
Economische Publicaties

Feature: United States / Focus on Asia

The United States remains the planet’s leading economic power. As evidence, one need only consider the simple fact that the US consumer accounts for 70% of the US economy and 18% of global GDP. The economic spotlights are therefore focused for very good reasons on rising petrol prices, falling housing prices, unemployment and unequal profit distribution, all of which undermine household confidence. The outcome of the political debate between the Republicans and Democrats over the US budget and national debt as well as the Fed’s orientation and monetary policy as from July are therefore also under close scrutiny.

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05/07/2012
Economische Publicaties

Country risk overview - Summer 2012

In Southern Europe, the recession is deepening, particularly in Spain, Italy and Cyprus. Coface is forecasting a recession rate of 2%, 1.8% and 1.3% in these countries respectively in 2012. Another source of concern is the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, which is now affecting growth in emerging countries, where Coface has noted a slowdown in activity.

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04/06/2012
Economische Publicaties

Morocco: 2012, a challenge year

The «Arab Spring» was rather mild in Morocco, compared with what is still going on in other countries in the region. This results from the role of the king, the Commander of the faithful, but also from the fact that leaders in Morocco have attempted to anticipate the rise of unrest and discontent.
Today, the country has a true asset with its manageable external indebtedness and its solid and dynamic banking sector.However, despite true economic and social progress, and despite the benefits that it derives from phosphates, tourism and better infrastructures, Morocco remains a rural, poor and insufficiently diversified country.

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15/04/2012
Bedrijfspublicaties

2011 Activity report

Jean-Marc Pillu, CEO of Coface: «In 2011, we achieved our goal of refocusing our operations on credit insurance».

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05/04/2012
Economische Publicaties

Country Risk Overview - Spring 2012

Greece quitting the eurozone would be disastrous. But this long unthinkable scenario cannot be discounted. Even though its likelihood remains below 50%, policymakers cannot afford to sweep it under the rug considering the severity of the Greek financial and economic crisis and the difficulty of implementing unavoidable reforms. This article draws lessons from the financial crises in Russia (1998) and Argentina (2001/2002) in exploring the likely advantages and disadvantages for Greece of withdrawing from the eurozone. What then would be the risk of propagation to the peripheral countries and the consequences for the eurozone as a whole?

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08/03/2012
Economische Publicaties

main lessons drawn from the Coface Country Risk Conference 2012 in Paris

Like at the beginning of each year, Coface organized its 16th conference in Paris on 16 January 2012, which has become the flagship event in the field of country risk, one of its main areas of expertise. An exercise, particularly challenging for 2012.

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10/11/2011
Economische Publicaties

Special report: Italy / Credit insurance

Italy’s economy – the third-largest in the euro zone – is well diversified. Yet the country is currently at the centre of the debt crisis plaguing the single currency zone. Of course, many of the economy’s fundamentals appear sound. The budget deficit did not deteriorate significantly during the crisis, the growth in industrial added-value and a niche strategy help to limit the trade deficit, and household indebtedness is relatively low. But the deterioration in the country’s economic growth potential due to structural weaknesses and the crushing weight of the public-sector debt in a very uncertain international environment are all cause for concern. Given the vast size of this debt and the fact that it is widely held by the European banking sectors, a default by the Italian government would have incalculable consequences on the euro zone’s future. However, the recent formation of a government of experts led by Mario Monti, an economist and former European Commissioner, provides some reassurance of rigour which is a step in the right direction.

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03/11/2011
Economische Publicaties

Agrofood industry

After their surge in 2007/2008, prices for farm raw materials began to soar again in June 2010, affecting foodstuff prices worldwide with particularly sharp increases in emerging countries. No other asset class registered jumps in prices as spectacular as those recorded by some farm raw materials with grain prices skyrocketing 36% year-on-year through August. Sugar prices also soared, up 50%. Prices for meat (beef, mutton, chicken) and dairy products rose over 15%. The price increase for rice was more modest with that commodity not traded on the futures market and only a small fraction of its production traded internationally.

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06/10/2011
Economische Publicaties

Country Risk Overview - October 2011

Disappointing growth figures for the second quarter of 2011, political tensions in the United States this summer around the question of the debt ceiling and the loss of its triple-A rating, the never-ending sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, the persistent lack of confidence on the financial markets, tensions on the money market and the vertiginous fall of bank share prices: So many negative signals that are likely to affect the global recovery observed since mid-2009. Global growth in 2011 will settle at 3.2%, representing a slowdown of 1.1 point of GDP compared to 2010.

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07/07/2011
Economische Publicaties

Country Risk Overview - July 2011

Global 2011 growth now stands at 3.3% against 3.2% in March. Growth forecasts for industrialised countries are almost unchanged at the projected 1.8%, a net slowdown compared to the 2.5% increase recorded in 2010.

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07/04/2011
Economische Publicaties

Country Risk Overview - April 2011

Various events that marked the first quarter 2011 prompted us to revise our world growth forecast for the year, down from 3.4% to 3.2%. And based on virtually finalized data for the fourth quarter 2010, world growth for 2010 comes to 4.2%.

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10/02/2011
Economische Publicaties

Main lessons from the 2011 Country Risk Conference held in Paris

Worldwide growth should be robust in 2011. But how can we analyse its driving forces and risks? Between the United States, where the recovery is hiding the weaknesses of an economic model that is overly based on debt, Europe, weakened by its heavy public debt and eroded competitiveness, and the emerging countries whose dynamism is continuing but needs to find new balances, decision-makers more than ever need reliable decryption and analyses to find their way.

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24/01/2011
Economische Publicaties

Global Construction: Substantial Geographic Differences, High Sensivity to Economic conditions, Permanent Credit Risk

The global construction sector is a kaleidoscope of diversity with substantial differences between countries and even between the regions of a given country.The sensitivity to changes in economic conditions also varies widely. In general,payment incidents involving actors in the sector are not uncommon. This surveyis intended to enable international trade actors to gain an awareness of the risksand opportunities that characterise this market.

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